Quarterly Report – Q3 2016
View as a PDF here: Q3Report2016
Ahhhh… Fall is here! The Fall Season is solidly in my top 4 favorite seasons! I love the crisp air, digging in my closet for light sweaters, and decorating for Halloween with my kids! As I write these lines, I am wrapping up a 4 day road trip through gorgeous New England!
Looking back at the last 3 months in the real estate market, it has been stagnant for the most part, with increased activity in September after a fairly quiet summer. Before we dive into the actual numbers, there's a point worth noting: 3rd quarter stats can be misleading... July's activity is typically a spillover of the Spring Market; during August many folks are getting sunburnt at the beaches; and the market gets a jumpstart in September after kids get settled in school. We should not jump to any conclusions as to the overall health of the market solely based on these stats.
Another important point to keep in mind is that every market is different! I’m not only talking about Cleveland, OH versus Washington DC, I am referring to different neighborhoods in Bethesda, Chevy Chase, Upper NW, Potomac, and so forth. In fact, every subdivision, every street, and every house is unique and should be looked at specifically when analyzing for fair market value and evaluating potential market interest.
OK, let’s get to the numbers. To keep things interesting, I will focus on different aspects of the market activity, all important and great indicators of the state of the real estate market.
Single Family Homes (SFH) in 20817: The number of new listings added in 20817 during Q3 2016 was 132 which is a whopping 43.3% drop compared with new listings added during Q2 of 2016. Not a huge surprise, however, it is also a 33.7% drop compared to new listings in Q3 2015! Also, during Q3 2016, 105 SFH went under contract, compared with 173 in Q2 2016, a 39.3% drop. When compared with Q3 2015, again, we see a 12.5% decrease.
The average Days on Market (DOM) for SFH in 20817 stood at 33 days, it represents a 22.2% increase compared with the average DOM during the same period in 2015.
Single Family Homes in 20815: In Chevy Chase, MD, DOM dropped to 14 days in Q3 2016, a 56% drop compared with same period in 2015 - a sign of a strong seller market! Number of new listings entering the market was 87 homes, an 8.8% increase from 2015, and a 37.8% drop from the previous quarter. The number of homes which went under contract during Q3 was 67, compared with 95 during the previous quarter, and a 29% increase from Q3 in 2015. All great indicators for zip 20815 which continues to outperform neighboring MD zips.
Single Family Homes in 20814: Bethesda zipcode 20814 also did well compared with 20817. A total of 89 new listings entered the market in Q3 2016, a 20% increase from Q3 a year ago, and a mere 5% drop from the previous quarter. In terms of sales, 53 homes went under contract, representing a nearly 4% increase compared to the same period in 2015, and a 15.8% drop compared to Q2 2016. Not bad! DOM however, increased to an average of 32 days, compared with only 14 during the previous quarter.
Similarly, the condo market in Bethesda slowed with 85 new contracts during Q3 which is nearly 15% less that we had during the same period in 2015, and a 22.7% less than Q2 2016.
What’s interesting though is the number of new listings of condos. The third quarter brought us 148 newly listed condos (in all of Bethesda), a 61% increase compared with 2015! That’s on top of 153 newly listed condos for sale during the second quarter. For those of us who have been following new construction in Bethesda, it’s not surprising. Bethesda-Chevy Chase condos and town-homes range wildly between $250 per SF to $1,500 per SF. There are multiple market trends, and sometimes conflicting trends, depending on the segment, and geographical area, of the condo market.
One last thought. We are nearing the end of a very long (exhausting, at times excruciating, comical, and historical) presidential race. No matter where you fall on the political spectrum, go out and vote on Nov 8! This freedom we have, the right to vote, this civic duty that we sometimes take for granted, is to be cherished and celebrated. Make your voice heard.
As always, for any of your real estate needs, be sure to call me!
For a specific analysis of your property, whether a house or a condo, anywhere in Bethesda, Chevy-Chase, North Bethesda, Upper NW DC, Potomac, Rockville, and Kensington – please contact me and I’ll be happy to meet with you! It has been my privilege to help your neighbors with their real estate needs over the past 10 years. It would be an honor to help you, too.